What the New Unemployment Numbers Mean in our Region
Here is an interpretation of the recent unemployment numbers from Jeff Zinser of Right Recruiting LLC based in Blue Bell, PA.
This was an interesting report that sent mixed messages but was primarily positive. There are two components;
1) Household Survey
This is usually the headline number. It shows an increase in unemployment from 8.8 to 9 percent nationally. This may initially sound bad but I think it is the result of people who gave up last year making an attempt to rejoin the workforce as jobs become more prevalent. This is normal as the economy picks up speed.
2) Jobs Number
This is the number of jobs gained or lost in April based upon payroll figures. This number came in higher than expected, at 240,000 jobs gained. Economists expected a gain of 170,000. This is a good number. Breaking it down by sector shows positive numbers in industries represented in our region- manufacturing and health care. Thar should bode well for the region. As a curiosity, it also showed a national increase in mining and related employment. One wonders if the Marcellus Shale drilling is reflected in these numbers.
While the overall numbers are good, there are some hidden concerns behind the numbers. Both temporary employment and the length of work week were flat. These are usually early indicators of a trend and may show slowing employment growth in months to come.
In general though, the components of this report would lead me to expect a drop in the regional unemployment rate when local numbers are released later this month, as well as a drop in the unemployment rate for those with college degrees. The April numbers show a healthy increase in employment in industries that are well represented here in the region. This was a good report for our region.
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